In this week’s GVA Market Insights, our Asset Management team explores: AI Doomerism Hits Markets: Warnings from AI insiders and Dario Amodei’s call to slow frontier development rattled AI stocks and pushed the 10 year Treasury above 5%. Is it Time to Buy Treasuries? With the Shiller CAPE near its 1999 peak and long yields above 5%, bonds offer the …

By Eric Hough In 2008, Warren Buffett made his famous charitable wager against Ted Seides that hedge funds and active management would underperform Jack Bogle’s passive S&P 500 index. The ending is well known, the passive index won by roughly 500bps annualized. I still remember thinking in the early 2010s, what would happen if one day the market woke up, …

By Eric Parnell “Team by team reporters, baffled, trumped, tethered, cropped Look at that low playing, fine, then” –It’s the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine), R.E.M., 1987 Coming in a hurry with the Furies breathing down your neck.  Last week, I submitted an article discussing the potentially overlooked downside risks confronting investors as …

By Eric Parnell “Trouble, Trouble, trouble, trouble, trouble, Trouble been doggin’ my soul Since the day I was born Worry, Worry, worry, worry, worry, Worry just will not seem to leave, My mind alone” –Trouble, Ray LaMontagne, 2003 Trouble is building on the horizon for capital markets.  Now I should preface everything that comes after with the following caveats.  The …

By Evan Coffey It’s worth asking what a good quarter is actually worth right now when assessing the AI trade. Nvidia reported earnings that handily beat expectations, results strong enough to make technology the only S&P 500 sector to close higher that day, up 3.16%. By that measure, a good quarter still moves markets. But that strength hasn’t been showing …

By Evan Coffey & Kate Templeton When financial markets misbehave, policymakers tend to take action. That reflex has played out twice over the last month, once in currencies and once in fixed income. Both times the response looked decisive. Both times, too, markets rallied briefly on the news before giving much of it back within days, or in the bond market’s …

By Eric Parnell “Your friend is heavy, But he was ready And never stopped for a while, And while you were sleeping, He went on keeping the final line in his mind. It’s all right, it’s all right, it’s all right” –Tortoise and the Hare, The Moody Blues, 1970 The hare attracts all of the attention.  Swift, fast, nimble, agile, and …

By Eric Hough In my best Steve Harvey voice: “We surveyed two hundred advisors on the optimal 2026 portfolio allocation for high-net-worth clients, and the top answer is on the board” Survey Says: There is no number one answer! There is no consensus and no single model dominates! Ok, I confess, I didn’t poll any advisors.  However, there has been …

“I know times are changing, It’s time we reach out for something new, That means you, too, You say you want to be a leader, But you say you can’t seem to make up your mind, I think you better close it, And let me guide you to the purple rain” – Purple Rain, Prince and the Revolution, 1984 The U.S. stock market remains on fire.  After what …

By Evan Coffey & Kate Templeton A rocket company became one of the most valuable businesses on Earth in a single afternoon in June. Five weeks later, its stock traded below where it started. The technology underneath it, the part that took a decade to build, hadn’t changed at all in that stretch. Only the price had.  That gap, between how …